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From
Tehelka Magazine, Vol 9, Issue 25, Dated 23 June 2012 |
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| OPINION |
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PRESIDENTIAL RACE |
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Netaji and the Bengali Tigress
As the Congress grapples with new twists in the presidential race, the real story of the summer could perhaps be the Mulayam-Mamata axis
By Ashok Malik
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Kingmakers Mamata Banerjee and Mulayam Singh have outmanoeuvred the Congress
Photo: Shailendra Pandey |
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IN THE best traditions of a power-overdosed and highly-strung city, Lutyens’ Delhi seemed to acquire a new restlessness and energy on the afternoon of Wednesday, 13 June, as Mamata Banerjee and Mulayam Singh Yadav threw the Congress into a tizzy. They rejected Sonia Gandhi’s nominees for the presidency — Pranab Mukherjee and Hamid Ansari — with Mamata, rather than anybody in the Congress, making the official announcement of those names. Next, they pulled three rabbits out of the topi, each with a caveat a mile long:
• APJ Abdul Kalam — a former President sent to Raisina Hill by the BJP-led NDA government and never Sonia’s favourite
• Manmohan Singh — whose elevation to the presidency would force Sonia to choose a new prime minister and potentially destabilise the UPA edifice
• Somnath Chatterjee — Mamata’s token Bengali name, since she’d dismissed Pranab. If the Congress accepted him, it would burn its bridges with the CPM and lose what tiny leverage it had over the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal
So who will the next President be? “For the first time, Manmohan’s name is under consideration,” says a Congress minister, “give the prime ministry to Pranab for two years and finish the government’s term.”
“I feel it will be a new name,” says a Trinamool MP, bewildered at the turn of events, only hours after he had said Pranab was a done deal, “a compromise, not one of these… But frankly who knows what’s on Didi’s mind?”
“Kalam could emerge,” says a BJP MP, “we need to keep quiet and not show over-enthusiasm. We were out of the game, but we may just have crept back in.”
Not one of those statements sounds convincing. They all give the impression of befuddlement and trepidation, part of a script that is being written by each actor as his or her moment comes along and the central narrative of which is lost on everyone. This is India’s most compelling and confusing presidential election, the first to truly reflect its fragmented polity.
Whichever way this goes, some trends stand out. The Congress is a big loser. It was trumped and outmanoeuvred by the crafty politics of the strongman from Uttar Pradesh and the chief minister of West Bengal. Mamata snubbed Sonia and in a sense, punctured her mystique as few have. Giving out details of a private conversation to the media, brushing aside the Congress president’s options, and coming up with unpalatable recommendations only an hour later — it was a calculated rebuff.
Mulayam was subtler. He gradually got the Congress to lower its guard. He attended the prime minister’s dinner on the third anniversary of the UPA government’s re-election. He allowed the rumours to spread that his Samajwadi Party MPs would replace Trinamool ministers in the government. He spoke conciliatorily of accepting the UPA choice if it wasn’t a bureaucrat. It all seemed to point to Pranab.
In fact, in the days before 13 June, Mulayam and Congress functionaries had informally discussed the idea of his cousin, Ram Gopal Yadav, as vice-president. The Congress was then told Ram Gopal had turned down the proposal because he felt he had a political career ahead of him.
On Mamata’s part, she gave mixed signals. She publicly opposed Pranab but privately allowed the feeling to grow that she would not be unhappy if he became prime minister because this would weaken the Congress challenge to her in West Bengal. Even so, she would make a song and dance about it. Early in the summer, she had waved away a BJP hint that Kalam may be considered for another term, telling an MP she didn’t want to “hurt” Sonia. Two weeks ago, however, a Trinamool minister told a senior NDA MP the party “might oppose the Congress”.
In the end, both Mulayam and Mamata — the Kolkata-Lucknow axis that is emerging as the power alliance of 2012 — played the perfect charade, and fooled the Congress.
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This presidential election is the first to truly reflect the country’s fragmented polity |
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TODAY, WHATEVER step the Congress takes — accepting Kalam, who seems the most serious of the Mamata-Mulayam recommendations; or pushing out Manmohan from Race Course Road, as many in the Congress itself want — the upshot is surrender to two regional bullies. Any new prime minister, even the experienced Pranab, will find it difficult to manage allies who have tasted blood.
If Mamata has not backed Pranab for the presidency, she is scarcely likely to back him for an uninterrupted stint in the prime ministry. On the other hand, Sonia was seen as reluctantly agreeing to Pranab as president. A Trinamool politician close to Mamata insists Ahmed Patel, the Congress president’s key aide, told him on 12 June that, “We will not be unhappy if you oppose Pranab.” Given this, will Sonia be willing to stomach Pranab as prime minister?
Consider Pranab’s plight. Till the beginning of the week, he was being feted as the politician’s politician and a shoo-in for Rashtrapati Bhavan. Now he’s yesterday’s candidate. Nevertheless, whether as UPA political manager or in any other capacity, he will have to make deals and do business with the same allies who have turned him down. His political capital lies diminished.
Ironically, the luckiest in all this could be Manmohan. If he’s kicked upstairs, he gets a secure five-year job and escapes the fall-guy tag as the Congress contemplates a tough election season. This may suit him, but will it suit his party?
Finally, what does one make of the Mulayam-Mamata partnership? Both want early parliamentary elections as they have recently won big Assembly elections in their states. As the story goes, Mulayam met Om Prakash Chautala, former Haryana chief minister, a few weeks ago and told him, “Be ready for Lok Sabha elections in early 2013. The presidential election will be very damaging for the Congress and the government may be shaken up.” From early 2013, the time table may have been altered and perhaps the M&M alliance is looking at the winter of 2012 itself.
What after that? With luck, Mulayam and Mamata could control 70 seats between them in the next Lok Sabha. With absolutely no electoral rivalry between their parties, this bloc could announce itself as the third-largest entity in the Lower House, after the BJP and the Congress. If the two national parties do relatively badly, it could seek to form a government with other regional parties and coerce the Congress to back it.
Such an arrangement probably won’t run five years, but it offers Mulayam his last realistic chance of becoming prime minister. Should this actually happen, he will no doubt allow Mamata’s ministers in New Delhi a free hand.
That is the gamble Mulayam and Mamata have taken. It makes for riveting political theatre and the next few days — till the President is chosen — and weeks and maybe the rest of the year should be compelling. Lutyens’ city smells elections.
Just don’t think of the economy.
Ashok Malik is Contributing editor, Tehelka.
ashok@tehelka.com
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