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From
Tehelka Magazine, Vol 9, Issue 16, Dated 21 April 2012 |
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| CURRENT AFFAIRS |
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FIRST CITIZEN |
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Who Will Win the Race to Raisina Hill?
As Pratibha Patil’s term ends in July, speculation is rife about the probable candidates for the next President of India. Brijesh Pandey does a head count
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Illustration: Naorem Ashish |
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THERE’S A new game-show in town and it’s called Kaun Banega Rashtrapati? (Who will be the President?). In July, India will elect its next head of state and the new resident of the majestic Rashtrapati Bhavan in New Delhi. There’s no certainty yet as to the candidate, but the corridors of power are buzzing with names.
Without the backing of Samajwadi Party (SP) and the BSP, the ruling UPA will be in a minority in the Electoral College (comprising all MPs and MLAs, each with a weighted vote, depending on the individual state’s population). This makes the presidential election of 2012 that much tougher to predict. More than the Congress and the BJP, it is the regional parties that hold the key to Rashtrapati Bhavan.
A lot also depends on whether the UPA alliance is ready to give away the vice-president’s post to the Opposition in return for a president of its choice. The response of state parties ranging from the AIADMK and the BJD, which will certainly oppose the Congress nominee, to the NCP and the Trinamool Congress, which will make the Congress sweat or even scare it by flirting with the Opposition, will matter.
Lots of names are doing the rounds. India’s past three presidents have been, in order, a Dalit, a Muslim and a woman. As such, the temptation to put up a candidate representing one or the other minority or traditionally disadvantaged group is strong. In 2002, APJ Abdul Kalam had united the Samajwadi Party, the BJP and the Trinamool Congress, for instance. This time, too, a plethora of such names has come up in the early discussions.
Topping the list is PA Sangma, former Lok Sabha Speaker, who could be the first Christian, first tribal and first person from the Northeast (Meghalaya) to become president. Additionally, this NCP member is an opponent of Sonia Gandhi and had left the Congress in 1999 on the grounds that a foreign-born person could not possibly become prime minister. As such, he could unite the NDA and regional parties that want to needle the Congress.
The Congress has no obvious candidates in its senior ranks. Pranab Mukherjee is too much of a trouble-shooter for the government to be pensioned off. AK Antony was in contention till the row with the army chief nixed his hopes. Shivraj Patil and SM Krishna, two other has-beens, are also mentioned. Patil lost out to Pratibha Patil in 2007 and cannot succeed a fellow Maharashtrian. Krishna is from Karnataka, the only southern state that has not produced a president.
Businessman Harsh Goenka proposed the name of Sam Pitroda in a newspaper article recently, leading many to ask if this was a trial balloon floated by the Congress leadership. Pitroda, a telecom technologist who holds a Cabinet rank in the UPA dispensation, is a personal friend of the Gandhi family. He could be seen as the Congress’ answer to Kalam, a meritocratic and essentially apolitical technocrat.
However, there are others who feel Pitroda has little chance.
Vice-President Hamid Ansari has been speaking to state chief ministers and a variety of parties but suffers from the perception that he was a CPM nominee in 2007. This means the Trinamool Congress will not back him. Gopal Gandhi is spoken of in some circles — and then there are the perennial future presidents: Karan Singh, Amartya Sen, NR Narayana Murthy. “This is all idle speculation,” says one senior MP, “nobody has revealed their cards yet. The Congress has to indicate whether it wants a consensus candidate or a fight.”
Some parties have tentatively broached the idea of bringing back Kalam but that would be an unorthodox option. No president has served two terms since Dr Rajendra Prasad (1950-62). Besides, in a country of 1.2 billion, people can surely find another suitable person, even Parsi constitutional lawyers and Buddhist or Jain scholars, if accomplished individuals from small minority communities are seen as a politically correct choice.
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More than the Congress and the BJP, the regional parties hold the key to Rashtrapati Bhavan |
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The vice-presidential election takes place in August and will essentially choose the man who will preside over the Rajya Sabha. In a sense this is a more political job than that of the president, especially given that the government is in a minority in the Upper House. The Congress is considering Tarun Gogoi. Parkash Singh Badal is the NDA’s early choice for vice-presidency, while others are floating the name of Mulayam Singh Yadav.
Sections of the SP feel Mulayam should keep himself in contention for the PM’s post in 2014 and not waste his political capital on vice-presidency. SY Quraishi, the Chief Election Commissioner, has his adherents too, but seems a lightweight. JD(U) president Sharad Yadav could be another prospective vice-president.
Political veterans are not attaching too much importance to the names being circulated. “When was the last time a candidate, whose name was out in the open for months before the election, actually ended up being elected president?” asks a senior Congress functionary, “once again the person who will make it to Rashtrapati Bhavan will end up surprising you.” Negotiations will truly begin only when Parliament reconvenes on 24 April for the latter half of the Budget Session.
Brijesh Pandey is a Special Correspondent with Tehelka.
brijesh@tehelka.com
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