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From
Tehelka Magazine, Vol 9, Issue 08, Dated 25 Feb 2012 |
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Maldivian malady catches India napping
The crisis in Maldives had been brewing for the past two months but our Embassy in Male and policy makers failed to read the signs correctly
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Illustration: Anand Naorem |
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NEIGHBOURHOOD CHALLENGES do not seem to fall easy on Indian policy makers. India has goofed up in Maldives. It ditched a genuine friend, President Mohammad Nasheed, who was committed to New Delhi’s commercial and strategic interests in the Indian Ocean island country. What India initially judged as a “peaceful political transition” was far from it. The unfolding events make it clear that Nasheed was forced out “at gunpoint” by the rebellious Maldivian National Defence Force in collaboration with the police and his political detractors. There are a number of video clips in circulation on international TV channels and social media to corroborate Nasheed’s claims in this respect.
New Delhi rather hurriedly extended recognition and support to the new president at the highest political level, counting on the apparent ‘constitutionality’ of the transfer of power to Vice-President Mohammad Waheed Hassan Manik. This was done before making a proper assessment of the ground reality, where Waheed himself is under cloud to have encouraged and abetted the anti-Nasheed movement. To cover the lapse, a special envoy was dispatched subsequently; a telling example of the “horse following the cart” in our neighbourhood policy.
There was no room for knee-jerk reactions in India’s approach. Things have been boiling in the island nation for the past couple of months. India’s embassy in Male and its intelligence establishments should have monitored the situation carefully and intervened diplomatically to get things resolved before the crisis.
It was unfortunate that in their obsession with the so-called Chinese and Pakistani challenges, Indian establishments in Maldives ignored its internal dynamics of power struggle and misled Delhi. It is also intriguing why political contacts at the highest levels, last being in Male in November 2011, did not yield a realistic perspective on coming events.
THERE IS no doubt that Nasheed, a crusader for human rights and democracy and an advocate of moderate Islam, has not been a politically apt manager of democratic power. Soon after becoming president in 2008, he alienated many of his allies and opened too many fronts simultaneously for his adversaries and opponents. He even made tactical and untenable compromises with radical Islamic sections like those of the Adhaalat party, which calls for Sharia law and stringent treatment of women.
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One hopes that the special envoy’s visit will bring about a course correction in India’s approach |
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This is because Nasheed faced a formidable opposition from the remnants of former president Maumoon Abdul Gayoom’s autocratic regime. His tax policies and moves to control corruption rattled the vested interests worth millions of dollars. His headlong clash with the judiciary that sparked the series of protests against him resulted from the refusal of the Chief Judge of the Criminal Court Justice Abdullah Mohammad, (a protégé of Gayoom whom Nasheed put under detention) to try these cases of corruption and tax evasion expeditiously and firmly. All these vested interests and Islamist forces joined hands to fund and politically organise Nasheed’s ouster. The ousted president bemoaned: “Dictatorships don’t always die when the dictators leave office.”
One hopes that the first-hand assessment by the special envoy may bring about necessary course correction in India’s approach. India is now asking for an early election in Maldives, a demand in harmony with that of the ousted leader. His successor Waheed is insisting on a “unity government” leading to elections in 2013.
The challenge before India is to take not only the Commonwealth and the US but also Waheed on board. It may also not be easy to prepare Maldives for elections in the midst of prevailing political turmoil and fragile stability, and ensure security of Nasheed and his associates and supporters until then. India’s failure to recast its approach will only delight its competitors and adversaries in this strategic Indian Ocean neighbour.
SD Muni is a visiting research professor, Institute of South Asian Studies, Singapore.
sdmuni@gmail.com
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